Friday, October 4, 2013

Harper would win election on less votes than Liberals

According to a poll from Forum Research, the Cons would win the election even though the Liberals have a 5 point lead! gives the breakdown.

National voting intentions

Here’s the way Canadians would vote in percentage:

Projected seats

Here’s how seats would be divvied up (majority: 169 of 338.)


Due to center-left vote splitting, Harper would weasel dozens of center-left ridings, pulling ahead of Justin Trudeau who has more of the popular vote.

This shows how our primitive voting system, First-Past-the-Post, can saddle voters with politicians and governments they don’t want and didn’t vote for.

The same is true of the 2011 election. Harper got 100% of the power on 40% of the vote excluding the vast majority from government. (The literal opposite of democracy.)

Voting reform fix required

Trudeau offers a simple but effective fix that will stop these absurd election outcomes: Preferential Voting (ranked ballot.)

This upgrades our existing system by changing the voter’s ballot from single choice to ranked — making MPs earn their seats with a majority.

This ends vote splitting and would’ve stopped Harper in 2011.

Although Proportional Representation has more benefits, it’s a major change that’s harder to bring about (it was rejected in 4 provincial referendums.)

Step-by-step reform

The safest bet is incremental voting reform: first put out the fire with PV ranked ballot; then build support for a fully proportional system.


  1. Thanks, Ron. Good analysis; horrific result of the two leaders of the opposition parties going for broke rather than talking about removing Harper and installing a replacement government.
    I'll tweet your posting; I hope others do the same!

  2. Thanks.

    It's too bad there isn't more cooperation. But I think it's a very good possibility Harper will be replaced by an alternative government in 2015.

    The most important thing after that is to implement ranked ballot voting reform. This is the same as permanent electoral cooperation (except voters decide which alt candidate is best instead of parties.)

    This will stop the Cons permanently. If we don't, it's a good possibility the Cons will win in 2017 and then we're back to the future: 9 more years of Harper 2 (whoever that might be... Jason Kenney?)

    Even if people think Proportional Representation is better, we can't fool around. First fix our existing system. Then work on PR. FPTP will destroy the country.

  3. How might the cash have an effect on the election and also the choice? The idea charges more income to perform regarding business office just about every election never-ending cycle along with there's no end in look Win elections online


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