MythBuster: ranked ballot favors Liberals

Some people believe that the Liberals will benefit the most from ranked ballot voting. This is based on the premise that the middle party will get the most alternative votes: NDP voters will rank the Liberals #2; Conservatives voters will rank Liberals #2.

What this fails to take into consideration is that most Conservatives loathe the Liberal party and want to see it destroyed. They will not give the Liberals their alternative votes.

Also ranked voting cuts both ways on the center-left. It makes little difference to a centrist who they rank #1 or #2. So if the Liberals take a right-of-center position on economic issues, centrists can vote — #1 NDP, #2 Liberal — without worry of vote splitting letting the Conservatives win.

PV will make it easier for the NDP and Greens to get votes. It will make it impossible for the radical conservatives to get absolute corrupt power a super-majority is opposed to. It will make the Liberals work hard for their votes and compromise with other parties when they form governments.

Voting systems in a nutshell

There are two different ways voters can be represented in a democracy: by person and by party. This is the main reason there are many different voting systems.

Definition: Seat/Riding: A riding is a territory where voters elect one or more representatives. Each representative occupies a seat in the legislature and has one vote. A majority of votes is required to pass bills and govern.

1. Westminster: (Our existing system of democracy.) Voters in a riding elect an individual to represent them (MP) who belongs to a party. A party or coalition needs a majority of votes from MPs to pass bills and govern.

2. First-Past-the-Post: (Our present voting system.) Westminster where the leading candidate wins the seat (single-member plurality.) The winner can be a minority candidate the majority doesn’t support (due to vote splitting.) Collectively, dozens of wrongly-awarded seats can give a 39% minority party false majority power: majority of seats, minority of federal votes.

3. Preferential Voting (ranked ballot): Westminster where the majority candidate wins the seat. Uses instant elimination rounds. Voters rank candidates instead of marking one with an ‘X’. Lowest candidate is eliminated in each round until one gets a majority. A person’s vote on each round is their highest ranking candidate still in the running. Reduces wasted votes. Stops vote splitting. Prevents false majorities.

4. Proportional Representation: Ensures parties get the same percent seats they got in votes (10% of the federal vote means 10% of the total seats.) Eliminates wasted votes and vote splitting. Ends false majorities. Coalitions tend to form stable multi-party majority governments. Used in 85% of developed countries.

5. Party list PR: Parties produce lists of candidates. People vote for parties. Seats are awarded to each party proportional to the federal vote. Parties appoint candidates to seats.

6. Mixed-Member Proportional (PR): Combination of Westminster and party-list PR. People vote for a candidate and for a party. Winning candidates are awarded seats. Additional party-list seats are awarded to parties to ensure total seats are proportional to the federal vote. Parties appoint members to party-list seats.

7. Single Transferable Vote (PR): Voters rank candidates who belong to a party. Many candidates are elected to a single, large riding. Seats in each riding are awarded to parties proportional to the riding vote. Highest ranking candidates get party seats. Collectively, this approximates federal proportional representation.

Under FPP, conservatives call the shots: ask Mulcair

Our primitive voting system, FPP, breaks down when there are more than two parties.

In the 1990s, the Liberals had an unfair advantage due to center-right vote splitting. Now a united Conservative party has an unearned advantage due to center-left vote splitting.

Small-c conservatives more equal than others

About 40% of Canadians are right-leaning. Under FPP, a fake majority is at 39%. This means conservatives now call the shots.

Any center-left party must appeal to moderate conservatives to split the right-of-center vote to keep the Conservatives away from majority territory.

Mulcair right-wing on taxes

This is no more evident than Mulcair’s recent position on taxation.

Mulcair not progressive on taxes

He is now espousing the right-wing mantra that Canadians are overtaxed:

“I am categorical on [higher taxes]. Several provinces are now at the 50 per cent rate. Beyond that, you’re not talking taxation; you’re talking confiscation. And that is never going to be part of my policies, going after more individual taxes. Period. Full stop.”

High tax fallacy

This position is, of course, a fallacy:

1. We’ve had 30 years of continuous tax cuts which have created soaring inequality and government debt. We were much more prosperous in the centrist Keynesian post-war era when taxes were much higher for the rich. Back then we also paid down most of our debt.

2. Among 31 OECD developed countries, Canada ranks #9 in lowest tax revenues.

3. Our once progressive tax system has become regressive. The wealthiest pay the least taxes — far below the 50% “confiscation” rate Mulcair talks about:

“By the centre’s calculations, the top one per cent of Canadian families — those earning at least $266,000 — paid 30.5 per cent of their income in taxes in 2005. That was less than any other income group — even the lowest.”

Voting reform seriously needed

This is why we need voting reform. It’s appalling that a 40% minority of conservatives determines the fate of our country. In a democracy, a majority decides.

If we had a democratic voting system all voters would be equal. Social democrats could be social democrats and win Canadians over like they often do in Germany and other northern European countries.

PV ranked ballot is the quickest fix

PR is the best option on voting reform. But PV ranked ballot also has a lot to offer the NDP as a stopgap measure. (It can be legislated direct on party platform; PR requires a referendum, 4 of which have already failed in Canada.)

If we had PV in 2011, the NDP would’ve formed the government. The ranked ballot would also eliminate the polarizing major/minor party dynamic between the NDP and Liberals. That would make the NDP a real player that forms governments.

If we had PV in 2011, NDP would be in power

Some PR true-believers spread a lot of misinformation about PV ranked ballot, claiming it’s somehow worse than primitive FPP.

Is an NDP minority government worse than an unfettered Harper majority? That’s what we would’ve got if we had PV back in 2011.

2011 Federal election

Here’s how the 2011 federal election would’ve turned out — according to the Globe and Mail — using PV instead of FPP:

2011 Federal election

Party	Vote	FPP	FPP	PV	PV
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC	40%	166	54%	142	46%
NDP	31%	103	33%	118	38%
LPC	19%	34	11%	46	15%
BQ	6%	4	1.3%	1	0.3%
GPC	4%	1	0.3%	1	0.3%

Under PV, the NDP and Liberals would’ve formed a coalition government (the norm in other developed countries) with 50% of the vote and 53% the seats. Clearly that’s more reflective of the will of Canadians than a 40% Harper “benign dictatorship.”

March 2013 projection

Also according to the Globe and Mail, if an election was held in March 2013, the Conservatives would’ve won using corrupt FPP. But under PV, the NDP would’ve formed the government:

2013 Federal election simulation

Party	Vote	FPP	FPP	PV	PV
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
CPC	32%	147	43%	117	35%
NDP	31%	108	32%	126	37%
LPC	24%	76	22%	93	28%
BQ	5%	4	1.2%	0	0%
GPC	8%	3	0.9%	2	0.6%

Under FPP, Harper’s polarizing style gives the Conservatives a big advantage. But when PV is used, divide-and-conquer tactics are punished as Conservatives lose alternative votes to the NDP and Liberals.

Conclusion

Although PV is not as good as PR, it would provide many benefits for the NDP — not to mention Canadians. Let’s not let lame rhetoric muddy the voting-reform debate.

What is a false majority?

When there are more than two parties under FPP, vote splitting can allow a 39% minority party to win over 50% of the seats — and 100% of the power. This is called a false majority because the party didn't earn a majority of seats with a majority of votes.

Harper “dictatorship”

That’s what happened in 2011, when the Harper Conservatives won 54% of the seats on less than 40% of the vote.

This fake majority — the 60% super-majority was opposed to — gives the Harper Government absolute power to pass any legislation it wants. (What Harper called a “benign dictatorship” while in opposition.)

In 94% of the developed world, government represents an actual majority of voters.

Voting reform ensures real majority

There are two ways to achieve true democracy:

1. Prefential Voting (ranked ballot): This ensures majority rule at a local riding level: MPs must earn their seats with a majority. To accomplish this, the voter’s ballot is changed from single-choice to ranked. It’s the same method used by parties to elect their leaders.

2. Proportional Representation: This ensures majority rule at a federal level. This system awards parties the same percentage of power they got in federal votes. Usually two or more parties form stable majority governments.

Why our voting system is broken and how to fix it

Unlike most developed countries, Canada uses a primitive method of voting called First-Past-the-Post.

This simple system awards a seat (in Parliament) to the candidate with the most votes. This sounds like a fair process until you realize that a minority candidate can win on a fraction of the vote when the majority wants someone else.

Collectively, a 39% minority party can get over 50% of the seats and 100% of the power: a false majority.

This means voters can get saddled with politicians and governments they don't want and didn't vote for.

Vote splitting

FPP breaks down when there are more than two parties due to vote splitting.

Vote splitting produces arbitrary election results because parties divide the electorate arbitrarily.

In the 1990s, the Liberals had an unfair advantage due to center-right vote splitting. Now a united Conservative party has an unearned advantage due to center-left vote splitting.

Time to upgrade

Voting reform stops the insanity and ensures government represents an actual majority of voters.

There are two approaches to reform:

1. Prefential Voting (ranked ballot): This fixes our existing system by simply changing the ballot from single-choice to ranked. Voters rank candidates by preference. This makes MPs earn their seats with a majority.

2. Proportional Representation: This distributes federal votes so parties get the same percent seats they got in votes. Since people tend to vote for a party, leader and platform, it's a natural fit. This system is used in 85% of developed countries.

Conclusion

It's time to fix our broken voting system. Which democratic method do you think is best for Canada? PR or PV ranked ballot?

91% of developed nations adopted voting reform

Of 34 developed countries, 31 have moved on to better voting systems that ensure an actual majority of voters is represented in government. That's 91%.

Canada and the UK use primitive FPP which breaks down when there are more than two parties.

Canadians deserve better. Canadians must demand better.

Developed country voting info

(Developed countries: 34)
Implemented voting reform	31	91%
Democratic voting system	32	94%
Proportional Representation	29	85%
Runoff voting	2	6%
FPP two-party	1	3%
FPP multi-party (undemocratic)	2	6%

Here are the voting systems in more detail:

Voting Systems

Short-form	System
FPP	First-Past-the-Post
PV	Preferential Voting (ranked ballot)
PR	Proportional Representation
MMP	Mixed-Member Proportional (PR)
STV	Single Transferable Vote (PR)

Developed Countries (IMF)

Country	Voting System	Variation
Anglo-Saxon countries
Australia	Runoff vote	PV
Canada	FPP	Multi-party state
Ireland	PR	STV
New Zealand	PR	MMP
UK	FPP	Multi-party state
US	FPP	Two-party state
European countries
Austria	PR	Party list
Belgium	PR	Party list
Cyprus	PR	Party list
Czech Republic	PR	Party list
Denmark	PR	Party list
Estonia	PR	Party list
Finland	PR	Party list
France	Runoff vote	Two elections
Germany	PR	MMP
Greece	PR	Reinforced proportionality
Iceland	PR	Party List
Italy	PR	Party list
Luxembourg	PR	Party list
Malta	PR	STV
Netherlands	PR	Party list
Norway	PR	Party list
Portugal	PR	Party list
San Marino	PR	Party list
Slovakia	PR	Party list
Slovenia	PR	Party list
Spain	PR	Party list
Sweden	PR	Party list
Switzerland	PR	Party list
Asian countries
Hong Kong	PR	Party list
Israel	PR	Party list
Japan	PR	MMP
South Korea	PR	MMP
Taiwan	PR	MMP