Monday, August 12, 2013

If we had PV in 2011, NDP would be in power

Some PR true-believers spread a lot of misinformation about PV ranked ballot, claiming it’s somehow worse than primitive FPP.

Is an NDP minority government worse than an unfettered Harper majority? That’s what we would’ve got if we had PV back in 2011.

2011 Federal election

Here’s how the 2011 federal election would’ve turned out — according to the Globe and Mail — using PV instead of FPP:

2011 Federal election

Party Vote FPP FPP PV PV
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC 40% 166 54% 142 46%
NDP 31% 103 33% 118 38%
LPC 19% 34 11% 46 15%
BQ 6% 4 1.3% 1 0.3%
GPC 4% 1 0.3% 1 0.3%

Under PV, the NDP and Liberals would’ve formed a coalition government (the norm in other developed countries) with 50% of the vote and 53% the seats. Clearly that’s more reflective of the will of Canadians than a 40% Harper “benign dictatorship.”

March 2013 projection

Also according to the Globe and Mail, if an election was held in March 2013, the Conservatives would’ve won using corrupt FPP. But under PV, the NDP would’ve formed the government:

2013 Federal election simulation

Party Vote FPP FPP PV PV
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
CPC 32% 147 43% 117 35%
NDP 31% 108 32% 126 37%
LPC 24% 76 22% 93 28%
BQ 5% 4 1.2% 0 0%
GPC 8% 3 0.9% 2 0.6%

Under FPP, Harper’s polarizing style gives the Conservatives a big advantage. But when PV is used, divide-and-conquer tactics are punished as Conservatives lose alternative votes to the NDP and Liberals.

Conclusion

Although PV is not as good as PR, it would provide many benefits for the NDP — not to mention Canadians. Let’s not let lame rhetoric muddy the voting-reform debate.

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