Thursday, October 10, 2013

NDP got hosed in Nova Scotia

With 46% of the vote, the Liberals probably deserved an outright majority in Tuesday's election. But a landslide majority where they win almost two-thirds of the legislature? I don’t think so.

The NDP, in turn, only received half the seats they would’ve got under a proportional system.

Here are the stats:

2013 Nova Scotia election

Party Vote Seats Seats % Seats PR Gain
(Majority: 26 seats of 51)
Liberal 46% 33 65% 23 41%
NDP 27% 7 14% 14 -48%
PC 26% 11 22% 13 -15%

One can see that primitive FPP gave the Liberals a huge gain in seats over what they would’ve got in proportion to the vote — a whopping 41%.

Compare this to the distorted results of the 2011 federal election:

2011 Federal election: FPP

Party Vote Seats Seats % Seats PR Gain
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
Conservatives 40% 166 54% 123 35%
NDP 31% 103 33% 95 8%
Liberals 19% 34 11% 59 -42%

The Nova Scotia Liberals gain of 41% was even greater than Harper’s gain of 35%.

Now look at what Harper would’ve got under ranked ballot voting:

2011 Election: Preferential Voting

Party Vote Seats Seats % Seats PR Gain
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
Conservatives 40% 142 46% 123 15%
NDP 31% 118 38% 95 24%
Liberals 19% 46 15% 59 -22%

Harper’s gain in seats would’ve been reduced from 35% to a moderate 15%.

That would’ve turned a fake majority into a minority government. It also would’ve allowed the NDP and Liberals to form the government with 50% of the vote and 53% of the seats.

PV in NS

So if we apply a 15% gain to the NS Liberals (as a rough estimate,) they would’ve got about 27 seats or 53% of total seats using the ranked ballot.

Conclusion

Some people believe a landslide victory like this somehow reflects of the will of the people. But in reality it’s a huge exaggeration of what the people voted for.

PR will certainly yield the most accurate election results. But PV ranked ballot will keep things from getting out of hand. Either option is better than the nonsense we have now.

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