Democratic voting election results

2011 Federal election

Here's how the 2011 federal election would’ve turned out using democratic voting instead of First-Past-the-Post according to the Globe and Mail:

Voting systems

Short-form	System
FPP	First-Past-the-Post
PV	Preferential Voting (ranked ballot)
PR	Proportional Representation

2011 Federal election: FPP & PV

Party	Vote	FPP	FPP	PV	PV
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC	40%	166	54%	142	46%
NDP	31%	103	33%	118	38%
LPC	19%	34	11%	46	15%
BQ	6%	4	1.3%	1	0.3%
GPC	4%	1	0.3%	1	0.3%

Under PV, the NDP and Liberals would’ve formed a coalition government (the norm in other developed countries) with 50% of the vote and 53% the seats. Clearly that’s more reflective of the will of Canadians than a 40% Harper majority.

2011 Federal election: PR

Party	Vote	PR 3%	PR 4%
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC	39.6%	122	126
NDP	30.6%	94	97
LPC	18.9%	58	60
BQ	6.0%	18	19
GPC	3.9%	12	1

Results would differ between a 3% and 4% threshold (the vote required to get party-list seats.) Countries like New Zealand and Germany have a 5% threshold to keep fringe parties at bay.

Under a 4% threshold, the NDP and Liberals would’ve been able to squeak by with a 157 seat coalition.

March 2013 projection

Here’s how power would’ve been distributed if an election was held March 21, 2013 based on a poll by Abacus Data. (See also, ThreeHundredEight.com.)

2013 Federal election simulation

Party	Vote	FPP	FPP	PV	PV	PR
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
CPC	32%	147	43%	117	35%	108
NDP	31%	108	32%	126	37%	105
LPC	24%	76	22%	93	28%	81
BQ	5%	4	1.2%	0	0%	17
GPC	8%	3	0.9%	2	0.6%	27

Under FPP, Harper’s polarizing style gives the Conservatives a big advantage. But when PV is used, divide-and-conquer tactics are punished as Conservatives lose alternative votes to the NDP and Liberals. The NDP would form a minority government.

Under PR, the Green Party and Bloc Québécois get considerably more representation.

Of course this poll is out of date. Recent polls suggest the Liberals are now in the lead:

June 2013 national voting intention

Party	Vote	FPP	FPP
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
LPC	34%	134	40%
CPC	29%	120	36%
NDP	24%	80	24%
GPC	6%	2	0.6%
BQ	5%	2	0.6%