Thursday, July 18, 2013

Democratic voting election results

2011 Federal election

Here's how the 2011 federal election would’ve turned out using democratic voting instead of First-Past-the-Post according to the Globe and Mail:

2011 Federal election: FPP & PV

Party Vote FPP FPP PV PV
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC 40% 166 54% 142 46%
NDP 31% 103 33% 118 38%
LPC 19% 34 11% 46 15%
BQ 6% 4 1.3% 1 0.3%
GPC 4% 1 0.3% 1 0.3%

Under PV, the NDP and Liberals would’ve formed a coalition government (the norm in other developed countries) with 50% of the vote and 53% the seats. Clearly that’s more reflective of the will of Canadians than a 40% Harper majority.

2011 Federal election: PR

Party Vote PR 3% PR 4%
(Majority: 155 seats of 308)
CPC 39.6% 122 126
NDP 30.6% 94 97
LPC 18.9% 58 60
BQ 6.0% 18 19
GPC 3.9% 12 1

Results would differ between a 3% and 4% threshold (the vote required to get party-list seats.) Countries like New Zealand and Germany have a 5% threshold to keep fringe parties at bay.

Under a 4% threshold, the NDP and Liberals would’ve been able to squeak by with a 157 seat coalition.

March 2013 projection

Here’s how power would’ve been distributed if an election was held March 21, 2013 based on a poll by Abacus Data. (See also, ThreeHundredEight.com.)

2013 Federal election simulation

Party Vote FPP FPP PV PV PR
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
CPC 32% 147 43% 117 35% 108
NDP 31% 108 32% 126 37% 105
LPC 24% 76 22% 93 28% 81
BQ 5% 4 1.2% 0 0% 17
GPC 8% 3 0.9% 2 0.6% 27

Under FPP, Harper’s polarizing style gives the Conservatives a big advantage. But when PV is used, divide-and-conquer tactics are punished as Conservatives lose alternative votes to the NDP and Liberals. The NDP would form a minority government.

Under PR, the Green Party and Bloc Québécois get considerably more representation.

Of course this poll is out of date. Recent polls suggest the Liberals are now in the lead:

June 2013 national voting intention

Party Vote FPP FPP
(Majority: 170 seats of 338)
LPC 34% 134 40%
CPC 29% 120 36%
NDP 24% 80 24%
GPC 6% 2 0.6%
BQ 5% 2 0.6%

No comments:

Post a Comment